EarningsBeats.com Digest for May 16, 2022
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The Likely Path Forward For The S&P 500
It's always a fun exercise to look ahead and predict future stock market action. That's why at the beginning of each year, we host our MarketVision event. We bring some of the best technical minds together and offer up our current and future thoughts about the stock market. Back in January, during my MarketVision 2022 presentation, I
provided an S&P 500 weekly chart showing the secular bull market channel that U.S. investors have enjoyed off of the March 2009 low. On that chart, I plotted where I believed the S&P 500 was headed in 2022:
It was a bold prediction, but one that I felt very strongly about. And I'm not one known to provide bearish forecasts very often. But when a number of bearish signals all come together simultaneously, I do not ignore them. Here's how the S&P 500 has played out thus far, with those earlier annotations left intact:
Time will tell whether we get a rally in the second half of the year, but I believe we will. The timing of it may very well depend on Federal Reserve action. If the stock market gets wind of the Fed backing off of earlier rate hike forecasts, I believe our bottom will be in. But if the Fed sticks longer than I anticipate to its rate-hiking plan, then perhaps we bottom later this summer. In either event, I expect a broad-based rally in Q4
and into 2023. Don't be shocked to see all-time highs again - much sooner than many think possible.
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Tom Bowley
Chief Market Strategist
EarningsBeats.com
Better Timing. Better Trades.
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